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It is clear that the U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce has been an extraordinary
tool for all of us -member firms and organizations- as a conduit to
build day to day fruitful and long-lasting business relationships across
borders and within our multicultural communities. Lately we have witnessed
amongst our members important developments and achievements rooted in
meetings and events of the Chamber.
Notwithstanding that the core mission of the U.S.-Mexico Chamber of
Commerce is to act as a business conduit, platform and advocate, it
is my believe that the Chamber shall also widen its mandate and scope
in order to become an organization that congregates and attends to the
growing community of Mexican professionals living in New York, as well
as those people with close ties and interests to this community. We,
as Mexicans living and working in New York, have to work towards the
assistance of our conationals, the strengthening of our ties as well
as on the preservation and sharing of our values and traditions.
The Chamber should congregate professionals aware of and responsive
to the multiple growing necessities of the Mexican community in New
York. We should be responsible for its empowerment, as well as for the
construction and consolidation of the necessary conduits to transmit
and represent the interests of the Mexican community in New York. I
look forward to working with our members and staff on the development
and implementation of initiatives on this subject.
The beginning of this season has been especially active on events organized
by the Chamber, we initiated with the traditional Mexico’s Independence
Day Celebration, where we had the opportunity to get together, celebrate
and share with our friends a colorful and very entertaining Mexican
party. We also had an interesting breakfast-presentation with Emilio
Azcarraga, President and CEO of the media giant Grupo Televisa. Finally
we had the opportunity to meet with the Ambassador of Mexico to the
U.S. and discuss the several topics related to the U.S.-Mexico agenda.
For the rest of the Fall, we have very interesting events to come such
as conferences on financial and legal topics, a breakfast with Fernando
Canales -Minister of Economy of Mexico- as well as a cocktail and art
exhibition of Latin American master pieces that will be auctioned at
one of the most prestigious Auction Houses in New York.
I invite you to maintain your enthusiastic participation in our events
and initiatives.
Best regards,
Eduardo Ramos-Gómez
President
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The Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico
(CKF) is dedicated to the analysis, modeling and forecasting of the Mexican
economy. Our models were created under the supervision of Dr. Lawrence Klein,
1980 Nobel Laureate in Economics. The Center produces high-frequency macroeconomic
analysis and forecasts, for the short, long term, and sectors. Our forecasts
of more than 600 economic variables are essential inputs in the decision-making
process of public and private companies. We offer high-quality services
and publications. The CKF is also the National Center for Mexico of Project
LINK-United Nations and is quoted by the national and international press.
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Mexico’s
Macroeconomic Perspectives: 2004-2006
By Alfredo Coutiño,
Director, Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico
Alfredo Coutiño, Director, Center for Economic Forecasting
of Mexico
During the second quarter economic activity continued dynamic after
the first quarter rebound. The external sector and domestic market strengthened,
in particular private consumption and investment. Doubtless the Mexican
economy is recovering this year, however, it is important to remark
that this recovery is mainly due to external factors. Certainly, domestic
engines of growth (consumption and investment) continued at low levels,
especially private investment. This in turn makes the Mexican economy
vulnerable to external shocks, particularly next year with the expected
deceleration of the U.S. economy. Thus, the levels of domestic savings
and investment don’t seem to be able to sustain a long lasting
recovery in the following years.
Unfortunately for president Fox the recovery of the economy is not based
on domestic sources. Effectively, the three main sources of growth (saving-investment,
productivity, and technology) remain week and don’t seem to improve
significantly in the following two years. The investment as a ratio
of GDP decreased by four percentage points in the last three years,
and multifactor productivity and technological change have been stagnant.
All this makes the Mexican recovery to be tied to the northern locomotive:
the U.S. economy.
Certainly, the Mexican economy will recover this year and will stay growing
at rates no higher than the potential growth rate (4.5%) in order to keep
the macroeconomic stability. Given the lack of structural reforms, the
low coefficient of domestic savings and investment will continue restricting
the economy’s capacity to grow. In this sense the scenario for the
next two years is of a recovery at limited rates. The economy will grow
around 4.1% this year, but will slightly decelerate to a rate of 3.9%
next year, given the deceleration of the U.S. economy. In year 2006, however,
the economy will grow a little more, 4.5%, due to the positive effects
of higher government spending in the electoral process.
Regarding the political and social environment, it is true that economic
results neither help president Fox nor his political party in his almost
four years in office, but it is also true that this negative economic
balance has increased social disappointment and induced a change in voter
preferences, as it is shown by the loss of P.A.N. in some State elections.
Given the absence of political leadership and the lack of negotiation
skills of the Fox administration, it is difficult to expect a deepening
of the structural reform in the following two years. In this scenario,
it wouldn’t be a surprise if the P.A.N. loses the 2006 presidential
elections. In addition, if we consider the wave of recent political scandals
and corruption cases inside the P.R.D., which reduces its position as
a political option, then the economic-political scenario benefits only
the P.R.I. Therefore, if social pressures continue accumulating to the
end of this administration (2006), then the society might not vote for
a “new political experiment” that steals six more years of
social well-being. |
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Send your member news to northeast@usmcoc.org
or call 212 471 4704 for more information.
Continental Announces Nonstop Service between Houston
and Huatulco, Mexico
Continental Airlines will begin four times weekly nonstop service from
Houston to Huatulco, Mexico on Dec. 17. Continental serves more Mexican
destinations from the U.S than any other airline. With Huatulco, Continental
will serve 29 cities in Mexico, and will offer the only nonstop service
from the U.S. to Huatulco. To learn more, please visit us at www.continental.com.
Mexicana Airlines
The Difference between seeing the Aztecs and experiencing them is to
fly MEXICANA AIRLINES, with daily non-stop service to MEXICO CITY
from JFK, enjoy our award-winning service offering complementary BAR,
choice of hot meals an extra leg room. USMCOC 15% DISCOUNT: vist our
sales office at 420 Lexington Avenue Suite 203.
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MEMBERSHIP UPDATE
The U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce Welcomes its NEW MEMBERS:
Binational Level
Regional Level
Corporate Level
Associate Level
Individual Level
- Carlos Ibarra-Fernandez
- James M. Cassidy
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November
10, 2004
"Financial Disclosure and Compliance in the New Millennium",
The Challenges and Perspectives for Latin America. November 15, 2004
Members’ only cocktail reception and Guided tour of
the Latin-American exhibition at Sotheby´s.
December 3, 2004
Breakfast meeting with Fernando Canales Clariond, Minister
of Economy of Mexico.
December
9, 2004
Christmas Networking reception and silent auction.
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July 21,
2004
Summer Mexican Young Professionals Networking Reception View photos 
September 10, 2004
Traditional Mexico Independence Day Dinner Celebration View photos
September 30,
2004
Private reception at the Residence of the Consul General
of Mexico in New York, Arturo Sarukhan View photos
October 14
, 2004
Breakfast with Emilio Azcarraga Jean, President and CEO
of Televisa View photos
October 15, 2004
Private opening reception of The Aztec Empire exhibit
at the Guggenheim Museum
October 27,
2004
Breakfast-presentation with Amb. Carlos de Icaza, Ambassador
of Mexico to the United States
View photos
More information about past events
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Unveiling of
Benito Juarez Statue at Bryant Park
On October 9, 2004, a commemorative
statue of Benito Juarez was unveiled at Bryant Park. The statue is a gift from
the State of Oaxaca to the City of New York, handcrafted by one of the most renowned
living artists in Mexico, Moises Cabrera, and it is the first Mexican figure to
be placed in the city of New York. Benito Juarez (1806-1872), born of humble origins
in Guelatao, Oaxaca, is known as “Benemerito de las Americas”. Juarez
is a Mexican national hero and the first president of Indian descent. Revered
by Mexicans as a great political leader, proclaimed the “Reforma Laws”
and established the foundation for the Mexican Republic thus preserving the independence
of Mexico.
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The Center
for Economic Forecasting of Mexico (CKF) the
only economic forecasting company for Mexico with the advisory
of a Nobel Prize Laureate, offers to all the USMCOC members
a 15% discount on all subscriptions to any of our macroeconomic
services and publications for Mexico. The CKF produces high-frequency
macroeconomic analysis and forecasts for the Mexican economy
for the short term, long term, and sectoral level using
the latest econometric techniques developed by L.R. Klein.
For more information, visit our website at www.ckf-forecasting.com,
or email us to ckf@ckf-forecasting.com
, and please mention your USMCOC membership.
Aeromexico
is offering a 15% discount to USMCOC members, on all flights
between the United States and Mexico. This special discount
is applied to J, Y, B and M published fares and is offered
until December 15, 2004, with travel having to be completed
by that day. Aeromexico offers convenient schedules from
17 gate-ways in the USA including New York and Boston to
43 destinations throughout Mexico. For reservations and
information, please call (800) 237-6639 or visit www.aeromexico.com
Mexicana Airlines
Discounts
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Save the Date
Christmas Networking Reception
December 9, 2004
Galeria Ramis Barquet
New York City
 
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The Chamber Newsletter offers an exciting
opportunity to reach more than 3,000 key businesses with advertisements
about your business ventures. To learn more about advertising
opportunities in future issues contact.
Click
here to learn more
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Contact Alejandro Ramos, Trade Representative, USMCOC-NE,
Telephone: (212) 471-4703
alejandro@usmcoc.org
If there is a topic you’d like to see covered in a future issue,
write to northeast@usmcoc.org.
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Editorial Committee:
The Management Committee: Rodrigo Amaré, Andrés
Antonius, Eduardo Ramos-Gómez, Pat Sabino, Denise Simon and Rosemary
Werrett.
Newsletter Committee:
María Fernández, Executive Director; Alejandro
Ramos, Trade Representative; William Farrell, Editor and Contributor;
Julia Mold, Photographer.
The news reported in USMCOC-Northeast Chapter newsletter does not necessarily
reflect the official position of the United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce.
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