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Fall Issue, 2004
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It is clear that the U.S.-Mexico Chamber
of Commerce has been an extraordinary tool for all of us -member firms and organizations-
as a conduit to build day to day fruitful and long-lasting business relationships
across borders and within our multicultural communities. Lately we have witnessed
amongst our members important developments and achievements rooted in meetings
and events of the Chamber. Notwithstanding that the core mission of the
U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce is to act as a business conduit, platform and
advocate, it is my believe that the Chamber shall also widen its mandate and scope
in order to become an organization that congregates and attends to the growing
community of Mexican professionals living in New York, as well as those people
with close ties and interests to this community. We, as Mexicans living and working
in New York, have to work towards the assistance of our conationals, the strengthening
of our ties as well as on the preservation and sharing of our values and traditions.
The Chamber should congregate professionals aware of and responsive to
the multiple growing necessities of the Mexican community in New York. We should
be responsible for its empowerment, as well as for the construction and consolidation
of the necessary conduits to transmit and represent the interests of the Mexican
community in New York. I look forward to working with our members and staff on
the development and implementation of initiatives on this subject. The
beginning of this season has been especially active on events organized by the
Chamber, we initiated with the traditional Mexico’s Independence Day Celebration,
where we had the opportunity to get together, celebrate and share with our friends
a colorful and very entertaining Mexican party. We also had an interesting breakfast-presentation
with Emilio Azcarraga, President and CEO of the media giant Grupo Televisa. Finally
we had the opportunity to meet with the Ambassador of Mexico to the U.S. and discuss
the several topics related to the U.S.-Mexico agenda. For the rest of the
Fall, we have very interesting events to come such as conferences on financial
and legal topics, a breakfast with Fernando Canales -Minister of Economy of Mexico-
as well as a cocktail and art exhibition of Latin American master pieces that
will be auctioned at one of the most prestigious Auction Houses in New York. I
invite you to maintain your enthusiastic participation in our events and initiatives.
Best regards, Eduardo Ramos-Gómez
President
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Mexico’s
Macroeconomic Perspectives: 2004-2006
By Alfredo
Coutiño, Director, Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico
During
the second quarter economic activity continued dynamic after the first quarter
rebound. The external sector and domestic market strengthened, in particular private
consumption and investment. Doubtless the Mexican economy is recovering this year,
however, it is important to remark that this recovery is mainly due to external
factors. Certainly, domestic engines of growth (consumption and investment) continued
at low levels, especially private investment. This in turn makes the Mexican economy
vulnerable to external shocks, particularly next year with the expected deceleration
of the U.S. economy. Thus, the levels of domestic savings and investment don’t
seem to be able to sustain a long lasting recovery in the following years.
Unfortunately
for president Fox the recovery of the economy is not based on domestic sources.
Effectively, the three main sources of growth (saving-investment, productivity,
and technology) remain week and don’t seem to improve significantly in the
following two years. The investment as a ratio of GDP decreased by four percentage
points in the last three years, and multifactor productivity and technological
change have been stagnant. All this makes the Mexican recovery to be tied to the
northern locomotive: the U.S. economy. Certainly, the Mexican economy will
recover this year and will stay growing at rates no higher than the potential
growth rate (4.5%) in order to keep the macroeconomic stability. Given the lack
of structural reforms, the low coefficient of domestic savings and investment
will continue restricting the economy’s capacity to grow. In this sense
the scenario for the next two years is of a recovery at limited rates. The economy
will grow around 4.1% this year, but will slightly decelerate to a rate of 3.9%
next year, given the deceleration of the U.S. economy. In year 2006, however,
the economy will grow a little more, 4.5%, due to the positive effects of higher
government spending in the electoral process. Regarding the political and
social environment, it is true that economic results neither help president Fox
nor his political party in his almost four years in office, but it is also true
that this negative economic balance has increased social disappointment and induced
a change in voter preferences, as it is shown by the loss of P.A.N. in some State
elections. Given the absence of political leadership and the lack of negotiation
skills of the Fox administration, it is difficult to expect a deepening of the
structural reform in the following two years. In this scenario, it wouldn’t
be a surprise if the P.A.N. loses the 2006 presidential elections. In addition,
if we consider the wave of recent political scandals and corruption cases inside
the P.R.D., which reduces its position as a political option, then the economic-political
scenario benefits only the P.R.I. Therefore, if social pressures continue accumulating
to the end of this administration (2006), then the society might not vote for
a “new political experiment” that steals six more years of social
well-being. |
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The Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico (CKF) is dedicated to the analysis, modeling and forecasting of the Mexican economy. Our models were created under the supervision of Dr. Lawrence Klein, 1980 Nobel Laureate in Economics. The Center produces high-frequency macroeconomic analysis and forecasts, for the short, long term, and sectors. Our forecasts of more than 600 economic variables are essential inputs in the decision-making process of public and private companies. We offer high-quality services and publications. The CKF is also the National Center for Mexico of Project LINK-United Nations and is quoted by the national and international press.
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Send your member news to northeast@usmcoc.org or call 212 471 4704 for more information.
Continental Announces Nonstop Service between Houston and Huatulco, Mexico
Continental Airlines will begin four times weekly nonstop service from Houston to Huatulco, Mexico on Dec. 17. Continental serves more Mexican destinations from the U.S than any other airline. With Huatulco, Continental will serve 29 cities in Mexico, and will offer the only nonstop service from the U.S. to Huatulco.
To learn more, please visit us at www.continental.com.
Mexicana Airlines
The Difference between seeing the Aztecs and experiencing them is to fly MEXICANA
AIRLINES, with daily non-stop service to MEXICO CITY from JFK, enjoy our
award-winning service offering complementary BAR, choice of hot meals an extra
leg room. USMCOC 15% DISCOUNT: vist our sales office at 420 Lexington Avenue Suite
203.
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MEMBERSHIP UPDATE
The U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce Welcomes its NEW MEMBERS:
Binational Level
Regional Level
Corporate Level
Associate Level
Individual Level
- Carlos Ibarra-Fernandez
- James M. Cassidy
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November
10, 2004
"Financial Disclosure and Compliance in the New Millennium",
The Challenges and Perspectives for Latin America. November 15, 2004
Members’ only cocktail reception and Guided tour of
the Latin-American exhibition at Sotheby´s.
December 3, 2004
Breakfast meeting with Fernando Canales Clariond, Minister
of Economy of Mexico.
December
9, 2004
Christmas Networking reception and silent auction.
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July 21,
2004
Summer Mexican Young Professionals Networking Reception View photos 
September 10, 2004
Traditional Mexico Independence Day Dinner Celebration View photos
September 30,
2004
Private reception at the Residence of the Consul General
of Mexico in New York, Arturo Sarukhan View photos
October 14
, 2004
Breakfast with Emilio Azcarraga Jean, President and CEO
of Televisa View photos
October 15, 2004
Private opening reception of The Aztec Empire exhibit
at the Guggenheim Museum
October 27,
2004
Breakfast-presentation with Amb. Carlos de Icaza, Ambassador
of Mexico to the United States
View photos
More information about past events
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Unveiling of
Benito Juarez Statue at Bryant Park
On October 9, 2004, a commemorative
statue of Benito Juarez was unveiled at Bryant Park. The statue is a gift from
the State of Oaxaca to the City of New York, handcrafted by one of the most renowned
living artists in Mexico, Moises Cabrera, and it is the first Mexican figure to
be placed in the city of New York. Benito Juarez (1806-1872), born of humble origins
in Guelatao, Oaxaca, is known as “Benemerito de las Americas”. Juarez
is a Mexican national hero and the first president of Indian descent. Revered
by Mexicans as a great political leader, proclaimed the “Reforma Laws”
and established the foundation for the Mexican Republic thus preserving the independence
of Mexico.
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The Center
for Economic Forecasting of Mexico (CKF) the
only economic forecasting company for Mexico with the advisory
of a Nobel Prize Laureate, offers to all the USMCOC members
a 15% discount on all subscriptions to any of our macroeconomic
services and publications for Mexico. The CKF produces high-frequency
macroeconomic analysis and forecasts for the Mexican economy
for the short term, long term, and sectoral level using
the latest econometric techniques developed by L.R. Klein.
For more information, visit our website at www.ckf-forecasting.com,
or email us to ckf@ckf-forecasting.com
, and please mention your USMCOC membership.
Aeromexico
is offering a 15% discount to USMCOC members, on all flights
between the United States and Mexico. This special discount
is applied to J, Y, B and M published fares and is offered
until December 15, 2004, with travel having to be completed
by that day. Aeromexico offers convenient schedules from
17 gate-ways in the USA including New York and Boston to
43 destinations throughout Mexico. For reservations and
information, please call (800) 237-6639 or visit www.aeromexico.com
Mexicana Airlines
Discounts
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